From Pine View Farm

THE great depression redux 8

I was watching CNBC all day as usual today, and as has been the case all year, all the news was bad. Retail sales bad, even at Walmart; first time jobless claims way too high; housing starts way to low. All this endless bad news is pointing to a consumer led recession that is going to be a long lasting bear of a problem. The most troublesome thing about it includes inflation pressures on the consumer in areas such as food, energy, and health care that could well escalate instead of moderate. Add to that we have stagnent wages , no savings, declining home values, and record credit card debt.

The tune “Brother Can You Spare a Dime” keeps playing in my head.



  1. Bill

    February 8, 2008 at 11:53 am

    While most of the economic news is not good, listening to CNBC will give you a complex. They are the “Chicken Littles” of the financial broadcast world. Bloomberg gives a much more balanced and sane view of the markets and economy. There is also a lot less screaming on Bloomberg.

  2. Opie

    February 8, 2008 at 6:49 pm

    Speaking strictly for myself, I’m going to be buying some stocks in the next few months. They’re on sale cheap.

  3. Ray

    February 8, 2008 at 9:16 pm

    TO bill and opie ; today feb 8 2007 will be looked at years from now as the absolute peak for asset value in the u.s. Its all down hill from here..opie you being from the midwest should be looking at farm commodies to invest in instead of stocks.Ask your broker about an etf with the symbol moo. Its an aggregete of agricultral commodies. that one place the smart money will be this year. Even in a depression people gotta eat!

  4. Ray

    February 9, 2008 at 2:00 am

    Bill just came off the bloomberg blog ,not a bit of good news over there either. Are you sure your not watching the fox business channel? I know they would lie about the economy to defend Bush and the republicans, they always do.

  5. Bill

    February 9, 2008 at 9:40 am

    Ray, since yesterday was the beginning of the end, I assume you shorted everything?

    I listen to Bloomberg Business Radio on XM. The folks on Bloomberg try to present news and interviews without yelling and screaming at each other. And I don’t do FOX unless my only other choice is CNN.

    Another ag commodity ETF worth looking at is Powershares DBA.

  6. Ray

    February 9, 2008 at 10:29 am

    bill I would love to short but I found out the hard way years ago wall street loves to screw little guy short sellers During the 87 crash I had five stocks shorted and they robbed me blind on every one of them. I filed 5 complaints with the sec and they told me where to put them. the street hates shortsellers,however I am tempted try these new etf shorts. Have you ever tried them? Im check DBA also thanks

  7. Ray

    February 9, 2008 at 10:37 am

    BILL pulled the chart on dba WOW very nice up 30% in 10 weeks and did not get hit at all during recent selloff thanks again.

  8. Ray

    February 10, 2008 at 2:26 am

    Bill one more word on why I am so very negative on the market. Ihave never been much for charts as a prediction tool but if you look at the historic chart on the dow jones you will see what investors are calling the ultimate bubble. the dow in two decades has gone from 2500 to 14000 fueled mostly by baby boomer retirement accounts.When they start cashing in, which may have started already,it will be much more likley we will see 8000 instead of 14000 in our lifetime.So I think im going to stick with commodies and short etfs in the near term.