From Pine View Farm

Nothing To Do, Nowhere To Go 0

It may be “less than forecast,” but it’s more than last week. That the forecasters (who go eerily unnamed in news story after story, though one suspects that someone knows who they are) were wrong–again–is not a cause for optimism.

I emphasize that I am not arguing that things are not getting a little better; trends do seem to be inching positively, though not quickly nor signicantly enough to rescue many from Wall Street’s three card monte hell.

I am arguing that the media and economists should reconsider basing conclusions about how things are going today on how well these “forecasters” did at forecast roulette yesterday or last week. Judging by their record, I wouldn’t trust them to predict the winner in a race between a Lamborghini and a Ford Escort.

Fewer workers than forecast filed claims for U.S. jobless benefits last week, a sign the labor market is starting to improve.

Applications for unemployment insurance payments rose by 2,000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 13, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped to the lowest level in two years, while those receiving extended payments climbed.



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