2010 archive
Tax Cuts Do Not Stimulate the Economy 0
Bloomberg reports on a study by Moody’s which indicate that they stimulate the rich–stimulate them not to spend their tax cut money. Moody’s, by the way, is hardly a leftist media source:
The findings may weaken arguments by Republicans and some Democrats in Congress who say allowing the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to lapse will prompt them to reduce their spending, harming the economy. President Barack Obama wants to extend the cuts for individuals earning less than $200,000 and couples earning less than $250,000 while ending them for those who earn more.
Follow the link for a summary of the actual numbers.
Why Science Reporting Stinks 0
Because it doesn’t tell enough and it misses the point.
Case in point missed:
The Daily Progress reports on a study by the University of Virginia in conjunction with the Dial Soap people. The study purports to prove that alcohol hand sanitizers–the kind the everyone set out in the waiting room last flu season–aren’t very effective against colds and flu.
Here’s the two crucial pieces from the Daily Progress story:
(and the last paragraph)
Turner said his findings aren’t cause for panic. He said studies have shown that hand sanitizer is effective for gastrointestinal diseases, particularly in the developing world. According to a 2002 CDC study, sanitizers did a better job reducing bacteria on hands than did antibacterial soap.
The Daily Progress is the hometown paper for Charlottesville, Va., the site of the University of Virginia. The version that went out over the wires is much shorter, more like this.
To evaluate this, the reader needs to know how large the sample was. The results are given in pseudo-percentages, such as “42 our of 100.” A someone skimming the story could conclude that 100 persons were in the sample, but that’s neither stated nor implied under a careful reading.
I also find the conclusion questionable. Here’s the lead from the Daily Progress and most wire versions I’ve found:
Using alcohol-based hand sanitizer doesn’t significantly decrease how often someone is infected with a cold or flu, a University of Virginia study has found.
Look at the figures: the incidents of colds was reduced by 9 per 100, to use the story’s construct. That’s 18%. Given the pervalence of colds, that’s not insignificant.
The incidence of flu was reduced from 15 per 100 to 12 per 100. Let’s do the math:
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3 case reduction divided by 15 cases in control group = 20%
Again, not an insignificant reduction.
I suspect that the stories are based on a UVa press release; I haven’t looked for it and it’s not the issue any way. The issue is that the numbers do not support the headlines. If the headlines are based on the wording of press release, reporters ought to have done the math and pressed (heh) for more information.
Frankly, an ad campaign that X may reduce your chance of catching the common cold by 20% would be a pretty good ad campaign, especially if it didn’t include fully dressed people in bath tubs.
Full Disclosure: I don’t commonly use alcohol hand sanitizers unless I’m visiting someone in the hospital, something I fortunately haven’t had to do lately.
No Village Should Be without Its Idiot 0
Gainesville, Florida, has found theirs. Leonard Pitts, Jr.:
As this case makes oppressively clear, the Internet and the 24-hour news cycle have evolved an analog to the terrorist veto. Call it the idiot veto — the ability of a single obscure malcontent, powerless but for his willingness to do some outrageous thing, to make himself heard at the highest level of geopolitics and force his way upon the international stage.
Two weeks ago, no one had ever heard of Jones, podunk pastor of a tiny church — 50 members — in Gainesville, Fla. Twenty years ago, his proclaimed intention to burn the Quran might have gotten him a few minutes on the rump end of the local TV newscast.
“Man bites dog is news,” because it’s unusual.
“Some persons are idiots is not news,” because a certain percentage of the populace will always be idiots.
It is a law of nature. When
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K = the symbol for constant and
- i = idiocy,
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Ki= the Idiocy Constant of Human Nature.
Corollary to the Idiocy Constant:
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Do not try to make anything idiot-proof. God will simply make a new and better idiot.
All seriousness aside, it’s persons like Mr. Mustache Jones who make me ashamed to call myself “Christian.”
Public Discourse . . . 0
. . . is going to the dogs.
What Noz Said 0
I was at a function this morning where the commemoration took the form of a moment of silence after the invocation and before the breakfast meal. It was appropriate and adequate.
As I recall, when I was a young ‘un, that’s how we commemorated Pearl Harbor and Armistice Day (Armistice Day on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month) (and, yes, I’m old but it had already been rolled into Veterans’ Day by the time I started school–it was still Armistice Day for my teachers, who, for some reason, were older than I).
The Creator Plans His Day 0
This reminds me why I read newspaper columns.
On Walden Pond 1
Details here.
Light Bloggery 0
Out and about.
The HTML website upgrade continues on my test machine.
“An Armed Society Is a Polite Society” 0
Defending her 75 cats:
The SPCA and animal control were called to the residence on Leighton Terrace around 1:00 p.m.
During the initial investigation of the house, officials say the female homeowner pointed a gun at Pennsylvania SPCA Law Enforcement Director George Bengal. Bengal was forced backed down the steps.
A Nude Twist on Gardening 1
From the BBC:
Leslie Howard, 70, put up fencing around his home in the West Yorkshire village of Steeton so he could tend to his garden in the nude.
But he now fears people will be able to see him from the houses, and is worried he could be arrested.
There is so much that could be said about this.
My first reaction is, “Just leave the poor man be. It’s a body. Everyone has one.”
Truth in Spending 0
Republican Economic Theory got us here. It won’t get us anywhere else.
Scott Lehigh in the Boston Globe:
But the idea that it’s somehow unpresidential for a chief executive to remind voters of the situation he inherited is silly.
Why, here’s Ronald Reagan, in June of 1982: “Some diehards are now declaring the present recession was caused by our program. May I just point out — we had the recession before we got the program.’’
Nothing To Do, Nowhere To Go 0
Down from last week, but still high:
“Hardcore Pawn” 0
Deborah Orr, writing in the Guardian, takes a look at the growing respectability and visibility of pawnshops.
I suspect that much of what she has to say applies also to the States. Pawnshops appear to moving into the mainstream of commerce. Locally, there is one large pawnshop that is running a series of TV commercials touting its friendly service and attractive shop adjacent to a major mall.
And the ghastly truth is that the Telegraph is right. Pawnbrokers are these days a comparatively solid option. If you go to a pawnbroker, then monthly interest payments range from five per cent to 12%, with a loan of £100 over six months attracting an APR of 70% to 200%. If you have nothing to pawn, though, and you instead go to a pay-day loan company – otherwise known as a “legal loan shark” – you could find yourself faced quickly with an APR approaching a stratospheric 3,000%. The appalling truth is that these companies too have proliferated in recent years, offering loans over the internet or via the mobile phone, and filling the gap left as bank loans became harder to secure.
The bright side would be that, when you deal with a pawnshop, you are bargaining over real stuff, not over bags of air derivatives and other financial instrument of self-immolation.
But Lying Is What They Do 0
Eugene Robinson dissects Hayley Barbour’s fantastickal tale of growing up integrated. A nugget:
Equally wrong — and perhaps deliberately disingenuous — is his made-up narrative of how the South turned Republican. Barbour’s fairy tale doesn’t remotely resemble what really happened.
I am about the same age, perhaps a little older than Mr. Robinson, and a little younger than Mr. Barbour. All three of us grew up in the Jim Crow South, though by law Mr. Robinson and I could not have attended school together. We are old enough to remember . . . .
Barbour is lying. He’s lying to himself, or lying to the rest of us, or some combination thereof.
Whichever it be–whether he’s delusional or mendacious–he reveals himself to be untrustworthy and unqualified for public positions.
Voting Is Not a Right. It Is a Duty. 0
One of my friends voices his alienation from the current state of American politics. Read the whole thing; it’s short.
Here’s the heart of it:
I care little at this point that Obama was dealt a bad hand. Or that the Republicans have been archly obstructionist. Or that the Democratic base, so fired up a mere two years ago, is disillusioned. Or that the Republican message (sic) dominates the airwaves and much of what passes for political discourse.
I do indeed understand the frustration; I feel it also.
But, with all respect, no one is talking about taking to the hills and waging armed struggle for decades while living on roots and berries and maybe the occasional pic-a-nic basket.
All that is needed is to take out 15 minutes or maybe as much as an hour on November 2nd and vote for the Not-a-Republican.
Light Bloggery 0
I’m revising the older parts of the website this week.