Political Economy category archive

For all practical purposes, status quo ante.

Initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 in the week ended March 26, the highest since the end of January, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called filings to hold at 265,000.

(snip)

Jobless claims have been below 300,000, a level economists associate with a healthy labor market, for 56 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest since 1973. . . .

The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, increased to 263,250 from 259,750.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell 7,000 in the week ended March 19 to 2.17 million, the lowest level since mid-October.

Still not bad; it would be better if the jobs were better jobs (emphasis added):

Initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 265,000 in the period ended March 19, a Labor Department report showed Thursday.

(snip)

Initial filings have been below 300,000 for 55 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973 and a level economists say is consistent with a healthy labor market.

The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, was little changed at 259,750 compared with 259,500 in the prior week. . . .

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits declined by 39,000 to 2.18 million in the week ended March 12. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.6 percent. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

English is a language of word order. The order of words matters.

Bloomberg’s headline emphasizes that the rise was less than forecast. Why does it not say that their forecasts were higher than the reality?

Still under 300k, still not terrible.

Initial jobless claims climbed by 7,000 to 265,000 in the week ended March 12, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday.

(snip)

The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 268,000 from 267,250. . . .

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 8,000 to 2.24 million in the week ended March 5.

Bloomberg’s headline asserts that Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Less Than Forecast Last Week. A more accurate rendition would be Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Less Than Bloomberg Forecast Last Week.

In reference to Bloomberg’s forecasts of the unemployment rate, if Bloomberg tells you to bet on Teabiscuit in the ninth at Belmont, don’t be surprised if Teabiscuit comes in seventh in a field of five.

At MarketWatch, Darrell Delamaide skewers David Brooks’s fantastickal ramblings about the American Dream.

It defies excerpt or summary. Just read it.

Still not terrible.

Jobless claims dropped by 18,000 to 259,000 in the week ended March 5, the fewest since mid-October, from a revised 277,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington.

(snip)

The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, declined to 267,500 from 270,000 in the prior week.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 32,000 to 2.23 million in the week ended Feb. 27.

Chris Busby gives an example:

My favorite is the Maine State Pier. Almost 10 years ago, city officials declared that the publicly owned pier was in such rough structural shape that Portlanders could never afford to fix it. Ipso facto, we need to allow private developers to lease the pier for, say, a century, and they’ll replace the rotting pilings for us in exchange for the favor of allowing them to build luxury office space, a hotel, restaurants and other amenities for tourists there.

Of course, the pier wouldn’t have been in bad shape to begin with had those same city officials done their jobs and maintained the waterfront infrastructure for which they are responsible.

Follow the link for more.

Still not bad.

Jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 272,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday in Washington.

(snip)

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, decreased to 272,000 last week, the lowest since mid-December, from 273,250.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 19,000 to 2.25 million in the week ended Feb. 13. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.7 percent. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

The Local finds eerie similarities between Donald Trump and Silvio Berlusconi. A snippet:

Michael Day, the author of Being Berlusconi, told The Local that the similarities between the two moguls are obvious.

“The vulgarity, the megalomania, the implausible ‘hair’ styles and of course, the cash. Lots of it, . . . .”

Paul Krugman points out that the Republicans are not the only party capable of falling under the spell of voodoo economics.

He believes that some Sanders supporters are sprinkling fairy dust on the figures. Note that the figures in question did not originate from the Sanders campaign, but the campaign is not contesting them.

By endorsing outlandish economic claims, the Sanders campaign is basically signaling that it doesn’t believe its program can be sold on the merits, that it has to invoke a growth miracle to minimize the downsides of its vision. It is, in effect, confirming its critics’ worst suspicions.

As economic policy is the linchpin of Sanders’s quest, I commend this article as an important read.

Afterthought:

In case you wondered, no, I’m not feeling the Bern.

I respect Sanders and agree with many of his positions, but my gut tells me that he is Nader v. 2016.

Do I find Hillary Clinton likable? Not particularly, but I never expect to sit across a bridge table from her. Likability is not a criteria for president. Competence is.

Think how many persons voted for President George the Worst because they thought they would like to have a beer with him . . . .

I also must ask myself how many of my questions about Hillary are the result of the two-and-a-half-decade-long Republican vendetta against the Clintons and how many are founded in reality. I think that the vendetta outweighs reality in this case.

Come the Virginia primary next week, for what it’s worth, which is not much, I shall vote Clinton. Her reconciliation with President Obama after the 2008 election and her conduct as Secretary of State shows me that she is capable and competent.

Do I think Bernie is qualified? Yes. Do I think he is capable? Yes. Do I think he is electable? No. His samba has only one note and the electorate wants more, a quartet at least, if not a concerto or even a symphony.

Not at all bad. In fact, a little better.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 7,000 to 262,000 in the week ended Feb. 13, the lowest since Nov. 21, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday.

(snip)

The four-week average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, decreased to 273,250, the lowest since Dec. 19, from 281,250. The latest figure compares with an average of 285,250 during the comparable employment survey period for January. The economy added 151,000 workers in January, the fewest in four months.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 30,000 to 2.27 million in the week ended Feb. 6. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits climbed to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

A bit better:

Jobless claims dropped by 16,000 to 269,000 in the week ended Feb. 6, a Labor Department report showed Thursday.

(snip)

The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 281,250 from 284,750 in the prior week.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 21,000 to 2.24 million in the week ended Jan. 30. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent.

Still unanswered is the question, in what flea market does Bloomberg find its “experts”?

Still not bad.

Jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to 285,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, from a revised 277,000 in the prior period, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday.
(snip)

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, increased to 284,750 last week from 282,750. The last time the average exceeding 280,000 for at least three consecutive weeks was in April.

The number of applications dropped as low as 255,000 in mid-July, the lowest in four decades.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 18,000 to 2.26 million in the week ended Jan. 23. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.7 percent. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

A little better, but basically status quo ante.

Jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 278,000 in the week ended Jan. 23, from 294,000 in the prior period, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday in Washington.

(snip)

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, decreased to 283,000 last week, from 285,250.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 49,000 to 2.27 million in the week ended Jan. 16.

Via MarketWatch. More financial tomfoolery at the link.