Political Economy category archive

Just the numbers. Speculation at the link:

Jobless claims unexpectedly dropped by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to 370,000. A spokesman for the agency said there was nothing unusual in the data.

(snip)

The four-week moving average for jobless claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 368,250 last week from 366,000.

(snip)

Today’s report showed the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits climbed by 53,000 in the week ended July 28 to 3.33 million.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

The outlook for process servers continues strong:

More U.S. homes started on the foreclosure path in July, as lenders tackled a backlog of mortgages gone unpaid even as they pulled back on home repossessions.

The number of homes that received an initial notice of default – the first step in the foreclosure process – increased 6 percent in July compared to the same month last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Warning: More language than usual.

When done on a much larger scale, this is called a “leveraged buy-out” and the seller gets his own house in the Hamptons.

The suspect, later identified as 59-year-old Christopher John Prew, advertised a 2011 Nissan Altima for sale on Craigslist, but he didn’t own the car, Belmont police Lt. Pat Halleran said. He’d only rented it from Hertz Rent-a-Car.

Heh.

Via A Generate Elite.

Via C&L.

No change of significance. Bloomberg thinks things will be a little better next week as the summer shutdown of auto plants draws to a close.

Jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to 365,000 in the week ended July 28, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase to 370,000. Starting next week, the data should be clear of any influence from the annual auto plant retooling closures that make it difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variations, a Labor Department spokesman said as the report was released to the press.

(snip)

Today’s report showed the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 19,000 in the week ended July 21 to 3.27 million, a two-month low.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 46,500 to 2.55 million in the week ended July 14.

Twits win on appeal.

Down somewhat, but still oscillating in the same general area:

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 35,000 in the week ended July 21 to 353,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 380,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Changes in the annual auto plant shutdowns that occur this time of year have made it difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variations, the Labor Department has said.

(snip)

The volatility may last one more week, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released to the press. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of jobless claims, fell to 367,250, the lowest since March, from 376,000.

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits shrank by 30,000 in the week ended July 14 to 3.29 million.

Bloomberg’s experts still not able to pick the ponies irrelevant unless you’re running their numbers.

Via Bob Cesca’s Awesome Blog.

Applications for jobless benefits increased by 34,000 to 386,000 in the week ended July 14, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 365,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The volatility in the numbers was due to a change in the timing of annual automobile plant layoffs, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were released.

(snip)

Estimates for first-time claims ranged from 350,000 to 390,000 in the Bloomberg News survey of 47 economists. The Labor Department initially reported the prior week’s applications at 350,000.

It’s called “shutdown” and happens every year in the late summer.

Also, Bloomberg’s experts continue their pattern of not being the persons to ask for help help in picking the ponies.

Aside:

Look, I know it would be extraordinarily difficult to predict next week’s figures with accuracy. On a percentage basis, they aren’t off by much.

That’s not why I keep harping on this. Given how difficult the prediction would be, why the heck does Bloomberg make such a big deal about the numbers missing their touts’ predictions? Their experts’ failure, low or high, is almost always in the first one or two paragraphs of the story.

One wonders whether maybe Vinnie or The Snake is running numbers based on Bloomberg’s “experts.”

From the website:

But what’s really important here is this – Fox is partially right…only they have their two labels reversed. The makers are people who MAKE things – the workers – and not people like Mitt Romney who haven’t ACTUALLY made anything in their lifetimes. The makers are ALSO people who help the workers make things – people like teachers, cops, and firemen – unionized public sector workers who ensure that our communities are safe, clean, and educated – and that our markets have rules. On the other hand – the Takers are people who TAKE things, like the billionaires who live high on the hog while their workers are making things.

Job prospects for process servers are looking up:

Foreclosure filings in seven Chicago-area counties swelled during June and the second quarter, keeping pressure on a local housing market trying hard to find a bottom.

Another 6,952 homes started the foreclosure process in Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties, RealtyTrac data showed. That’s a 27 percent increase from June 2011 when initial filings of foreclosure in the seven counties totaled 5,485. The number declined from May 2012, when 7,595 homes entered foreclosure.

A little brighter this week. Bloomberg:

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 26,000 in the week ended July 7 to 350,000, the fewest since March 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 372,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

(snip)

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits fell by 14,000 in the week ended June 30 to 3.3 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 13,300 to 2.65 million in the week ended June 23.

In a continuing trend, Bloomberg’s experts were even wronger than usual.

Click for a larger image.

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. The San Jose Mercury-News has the figures:

Puny wage increases that have been chewed up by inflation have left hundreds of thousands of Bay Area workers worse off than they were 10 years ago.

But top wage earners have seen their paychecks soar by 26 percent over the same period when adjusted for inflation. That’s widened the gap between those on the top and bottom of the workforce.

A decade ago, the average wages of those in the lowest income categories were 66 percent below the average pay of the workers perched on the highest rungs of the income ladder. But 10 years later, the divide has reached 73 percent.

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 14,000 in the week ended June 30 to 374,000, the fewest since mid May, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 385,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A Labor Department spokesman said there was nothing unusual in the data.

(snip)

The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, fell to 385,750 last week from 387,250.

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits climbed by 4,000 in the week ended June 23 to 3.31 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

According to Bloomberg last week, that week’s figures were a disaster because they were slightly higher than Bloomberg’s “experts” predicted. Therefore these figures must be wonderful because they are lower than the “experts” predicted.

The figures lead to one inescapable conclusion. Bloomberg needs new experts.

August J. Pollak advances a theory about why so many folks oppose health care (and other) reforms so vehemently.

I’m not necessarily agreeing with it, but I think it’s worth considering.

It’s sort of an economic analogy of the classic definition of Puritanism as the bone-chilling fear that somewhere, someone is having fun.

A nugget (warning: mild language):

America has the most dysfunctional sense of reward ever. We idolize the rich, regardless of how they earned their riches and in many cases in spite of it. We’ll watch a TV show about useless idiots or a rich asshole firing people or a random person becoming a millionaire because they are good at spinning a wheel or remembering aspects of pop culture. But we’ll turn around and be furious that we might all have to start contributing to a system that betters another person’s ability to take care of themselves when they’re sick because that’s not “fair.”

The entire history of opposition to progressive change in America is based on thinking that someone who isn’t you is having their life improved. And I’m sure it goes without saying that the history of opposition to progressive change just happens to go hand in hand with said progressive change being related to improving the lives of people who aren’t white, aren’t male and aren’t rich, or at the very least in elite social circles.

The Philadelphia Inquirer pens a paean to the last Silverliner II commuter cars, self-propelled electric train cars designed for commuter service, which first entered revenue service nearly 50 years ago.

Indeed, when I lived in Narberth, Pa., I rode to work and play in Center City almost every day on Silverliner II trains. They weren’t particularly elegant and were about as streamlined as bricks, but they worked.

They worked for almost half a century.

The Budd factory and the Baldwin Engine Works, as well as most other heavy manufacturing in Philly, are long gone.

One little sentence about halfway through the story encapsulates the legacy of vulture capitalists and bubblicious banksters, an epitaph for an economy:

The once-thriving Budd plant on Red Lion Road that employed about 2,500 workers was demolished in the late 1990s, giving way to a golf course that is now closed.

No significant change:

Jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 23, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The prior week’s reading was revised up to 392,000 from 387,000, matching an April figure as the steepest of 2012.

(snip)

The four-week moving average decreased to 386,750 from 387,500, which was the highest since the week ended Dec. 3.