Political Economy category archive

Behind the numbers:

In order to be counted as unemployed, you have to say that you are looking for work. The unemployment rate did not fall because the unemployed had found jobs; rather, the unemployment rate fell because people have given up looking for work. Only in Washington would this be hailed as good news.

Follow the link for details.

I missed the weekly unemployment figures, having spent most of the last two days on the road, and I haven’t looked them up yet.

The monthly figures are slightly encouraging in a lukewarm king of way. From Bloomberg:

Payrolls increased by 216,000 workers last month after a revised 194,000 gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Economists projected a March gain of 190,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate dropped from 8.9 percent in February (to 8.8 percent–ed.), the fourth straight decrease.

Pretty much holding steady:

Jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 382,000 in the week ended March 19, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The total number of people receiving benefits dropped to the lowest level in almost three years.

Flipped at settlement.

Via Tampa Bay dot com.

Back under 400k. Appears to be a very anemic slightly positive trend:

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 16,000 in the period ended March 12 to 385,000, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today. The four-week average of claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls fell, while those getting extended payments rose.

Fewer firings along with increased hiring and a lower unemployment rate may help lift household spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said the expansion is getting stronger and the labor market is “improving gradually.”

Foreclosures feed the market in my area:

Almost 700 existing homes sold last month, up 3 percent from January and 20 percent from a year ago, REIN reported. Nearly three of every seven homes sold – or 42 percent – were bank-owned or were sold for less than the seller owed on the mortgage.

Gotta make those sales.

Jamelle Boule comments briefly and incisively on the backwards nature of the budget debate.

Not good, not terrible.

Applications for first-time unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 to 397,000 in the week ended March 5, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast claims would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The total number of people receiving benefits in the prior week fell to the lowest since October 2008.

More at the link.

Via Glomarization.

Paul Krugman on the phony balance of “on-one-hand-on-the-other-hand” (emphasis added):

Some have asked if there aren’t conservative sites I read regularly. Well, no. I will read anything I’ve been informed about that’s either interesting or revealing; but I don’t know of any economics or politics sites on that side that regularly provide analysis or information I need to take seriously. I know we’re supposed to pretend that both sides always have a point; but the truth is that most of the time they don’t. The parties are not equally irresponsible; Rachel Maddow isn’t Glenn Beck; and a conservative blog, almost by definition, is a blog written by someone who chooses not to notice that asymmetry. And life is short …

Via Bob Cesca.

At least one industry is doing okay.

Liquor company Brown-Forman Corp. posted a 30 percent increase in its third-quarter profit on Tuesday, beating Wall Street estimates on the strength of robust international sales and a sales spike for its Jack Daniel’s and el Jimador brands.

Its shares jumped 7 percent in morning trading.

Via BartCop.

Slight cause for hope from the monthly February figures:

The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest in almost two years, and employers added 192,000 jobs in a sign of growing confidence in the recovery.

The increase in payrolls partly reflected a return to more seasonable weather and followed a 63,000 gain in January, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists was for an addition of 196,000 jobs last month.

Meanwhile, in the world of No Mountebank Too High No Lie Too Big, Republicans claim credit, even as they blackmail the polity with layoffs.

Just down the road a piece in Suffolk:

Residential property, which accounts for about 75 per cent of the city’s overall assessed value, led the losses with a decline of about 3 percent. Commercial real estate, about 19 percent of city property value, shrank by a lesser amount. The exact figure was not immediately available. Farm land accounts for about 4.2 percent of the city’s tax base.

Overall, taxable property shrank in value from $9.04 billion to $8.84 billion. It’s the third consecutive year assessments have declined.

I believe that, on Wall Street, this is known as creating value–or some such mumbo jumbo for making the rich richer and the poor poorer.

The short-term weekly figures getting a little better. (Link fixed.)

Applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 20,000 to 368,000 in the week ended Feb. 26, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast claims would climb to 395,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since October 2008.

Among the reasons for increased optimism about the labor market in coming months has been a recent drop in initial claims, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers this week. Companies added 200,000 jobs in February, while unemployment rose to 9.1 percent, economists project a Labor Department report to show tomorrow.

(snip)

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 388,500, the lowest since the week ended July 12, 2008, from 401,250 last week. It was also the first time the monthly average has been below 400,000 since July 2008.

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits unexpectedly decreased by 59,000 in the week ended Feb. 19 to 3.77 million.

Writing at the Guardian, Anya Schiffrin considers why business news fails to inform. One possible reason: focusing on the small picture:

Business and economics journalism is not that different from other forms of journalism. Reporters and editors mostly cover events that have already happened, not write about what could happen. They also have a tendency to rely on official and business sources, rather than on person-on-the-street interviews. This is partly because most of the people who read business news are from the worlds of money and business. Historically (the first business news sheets date to the 16th century), they relied on the business press for information that will help their investments. Sadly, this means that press reports about business and economics are often not much help to the ordinary reader trying to understand these subjects.

Remember all those happy-looking retirees in those bathtubs on the telly vision?

They are working actors, probably getting paid minimum scale:

America’s retirement system is said to be a three-legged stool made up of private savings, pension plans, and Social Security. But each leg of the stool is wobbly, while a fourth unacknowledged leg — asset accumulation from home equity — has also taken a huge hit. Absent drastic changes in retirement policy, more elderly Americans will be poor, and many more will be working, often in low-wage jobs, because they can’t afford to retire.

Read the whole thing, especially the part about why the move to 401k’s turned out to be a scam and a fraud has failed the holders of 401k-based retirement plans.

From John Cole:

A unionized public employee, a teabagger, and a CEO are sitting at a table. In the middle of the table is a plate with a dozen cookies on it. The CEO reaches across and takes 11 cookies, then looks at the teabagger and says “Watch out for that union guy—he wants a piece of your cookie!”