From Pine View Farm

Political Economy category archive

Bushonomics: “I Bought This Car because the Front Seats Turn into a Bed” Dept. 1

Trickle down turns to flushed down:


Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged a record 14.4 percent in March from a year earlier, while consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in 16 years in May as gasoline prices surged.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas released on Tuesday showed prices of previously owned homes fell 2.2 percent in March, deepening their year-on-year decline.

Separately, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 57.2 this month from 62.8 in April as rising gasoline costs and falling home prices made Americans increasingly nervous both about current conditions and the future.

In one positive sign, however, the Commerce Department said sales of newly constructed single-family homes rose in April for the first time in six months, while the inventory of unsold new homes declined for the 12th straight month. But the previous month’s decline was even steeper than first reported.

I wonder–I really do, because I’m too lazy to look it up tonight and I have to be out of here early tomorrow–how much the sales of newly constructed homes were affected by price cuts by the developers, where “from the low $290s” might have changed to “from the low $250s“?

Anyone care to do my work for me? (That means find some statistics, not opine some sadistics.)

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Bushonomics: Sidebar Changes 4

I’ve added two sites to the sidebar to which I want to call your special attention:

Marketwatch, a service of the Wall Street Journal, and Bonddad. So far, I haven’t gotten the Bonddad RSS feed to work. but I’m going to keep at it.

Both of them are financial sites highly recommended by Ray, who has made and lost fortunes in the markets.

(By the way, Ray has promised to work on a post to explain to us what hedge funds are and how they work. I suspect most of us who keep hearing the term “hedge funds” don’t really know what it means; Ray does.)

On Marketwatch, I recommend checking the comments to the stories; the commenters there are only in it for the bucks (that is, they are concerned about what’s happening to the financial markets) and, consequently, bring a special perceptiveness about what’s happening in the financial markets as it relates to the economy as a whole.

Bonddad is a “chartist.” He posts and explains charts about what is happening in the economy.

Check them both out and batten down the hatches. The Bushonomics storm really hasn’t started yet.

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Bushonomics 3

Up, up

Philadelphia-area gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon this Memorial Day weekend after crude-oil prices spiked to a record $135 per barrel.

“Almost every day we’re hitting a record,” said Catherine Rossi, spokeswoman for the American Automobile Association’s Mid-Atlantic chapter, which is tracking summer gas prices with a weekly report.

And away.

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Bushonomics: The FDIC Prepares for the Bottom To Drop Out 0

Earlier this year, the FDIC began trying to lure roughly 25 retirees like Holloway back to prepare for an increase in bank failures. It’s also hiring about 75 new staff.

Holloway quickly went back to work. ANB Financial N.A., a bank in Bentonville, Ark. with $2.1 billion in assets and $1.8 billion in customer deposits, was failing and an expert like Holloway was needed to value the assets and find a stronger institution to take them on.

“I was very excited about coming back,” Holloway said in an interview. “I’m now 57. There’s still a lot of life left and the juices are flowing again.”

On May 9, life for ANB ended when the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, another bank regulator, announced that the lender was closing. . . .

Only three banks have failed so far in 2008. But that number is set to surge as the credit crunch slows economic growth and hammers some lenders that grew too fast during the recent real-estate boom, experts say.

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Bushonomics 1

Making the rich richer and the poor poorer.

Must be nice to one of the five . . .

First, note that I said “most” families’ incomes haven’t gone much of anywhere in recent years. Well, all of that productivity growth had to go somewhere, and most of it accumulated at the top of the income scale. The top five hedge-fund managers earned $12.6 billion last year, the equivalent earnings of the bottom nine million workers. Those high-enders generated a lot of that extra spending.

But the second source is the bigger story, and it is, of course, borrowing. As incomes stagnated for many yet consumption soared, we made up the difference with borrowing. Household debt, including mortgages, just about doubled in seven short years (2000-07), from $7.4 trillion to $14.4 trillion.

But not to be a working stiff . . .

“I’m busing it now, because I can’t afford a car,” said Stella Stanford, a Wilmington mother of two who relies on disability payments to support her two sons and 93-year-old mother. “I can’t afford the gas. I can’t afford the insurance.”

For some, there is even a growing recognition that American consumers have been living too large, spending too fast, borrowing too much. Whether today’s circumstantial thriftiness gives rise to a more frugal culture remains to be seen, but some experts hope the current crisis will at least encourage more rational spending habits.

“In past years, we’ve seen people talking the talk, but now they’re walking the walk,” said Jack R. Nerad, executive market analyst for Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research.

It’s certainly achieving it for the time being. A study of middle-class Americans last month by the Pew Foundation found that more than half have had to reduce their spending in the past year. A quarter expect to have trouble paying bills. Within the course of the past year, heating oil has leapt more than 50 percent nationally, and gasoline is up 25 percent.

(snip)

In just a year, prices of many kitchen essentials have seen double-digit price spikes, including flour (18.3 percent), bread (14.1), eggs (30.5) and milk (13.5).

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Bushonomics 0

Feed the rich:

The inspector general for the Defense Department said yesterday that the Pentagon cannot account for almost $15 billion worth of goods and services ranging from trucks, bottled water and mattresses to rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns that were bought from contractors in the Iraq reconstruction effort.

The Pentagon did not have the proper documentation, including receipts, vouchers, signatures, invoices or other paperwork, for $7.8 billion that American and Iraqi contractors were paid for phones, folders, paint, blankets, Nissan trucks, laundry services and other items, according to a 69-page audit released to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

An earlier audit by the inspector general found deficiencies in accounting for $5.2 billion of U.S. payments to buy weapons, trucks, generators and other equipment for Iraq’s security forces. In addition, the Defense Department spent $1.8 billion of seized Iraqi assets with “absolutely no accountability,” according to Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.), who chairs the oversight committee. The Pentagon also kept poor records on $135 million that it paid to its partners in the multinational military force in Iraq, auditors said.

That’s $15 billion.

Just as a little bit of a comparison, that would run Philadelphia for approximately four years.

And that’s not an accounting of the total wasted money. That’s just the wasted money that the Current Federal Administration lost track of.

Oh, yeah, and Republicans know how to run a business.

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Bushonomics 0

Viewed from abroad:

Sales of previously-owned US homes fell in April but not as much as had been feared, industry figures show.

The number of transactions during the month was 1% lower than in March to an annual rate of 4.89 million, said the National Association

(snip)

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $202,300 in April, which is 8% below a year ago when the median was $219,900.

Analysts predicted further price falls to come as a result of the increasing backlog of unsold homes.

The NER said inventory rose 10.5% to 4.55 million homes.

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Bushonomics 0

The trucking firm Jevic Transportation Inc., of Delanco, announced yesterday that it was ceasing operations after 27 years, a victim of high diesel and insurance costs as well as the tightened economy.

and

After weeks of upwardly creeping prices, the $4 gallon of gasoline finally arrived in the Philadelphia area yesterday.

What’s more, some local stations now are charging more for customers who pay by credit card than they do for motorists paying cash.

Seven gas stations in the eight-county area posted prices of $4 or more for regular-grade yesterday, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic. All were on the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware River – two in Philadelphia, three in Conshohocken, and one each in Doylestown and Morrisville.

Not to mention

Heavy metal is driving the latest trend in art theft.

With the cost of copper and other metals skyrocketing, thieves around the world are targeting outdoor sculpture to sell as scrap.

Thus far, Philadelphia appears to have dodged the copper bullet. But not entirely.

In late January, the plaque from Henry Moore’s 1964 bronze sculpture Three-Way Piece Number 1: Points was discovered missing from Triangle Park at 16th Street and the Parkway.

The plaque, which had been embedded in the grass next to the sidewalk, has not been found. The 7-foot, 3-inch sculpture, owned and maintained by the Fairmount Park Art Association, is untouched.

Other cities have not been as lucky.

In Warrenton, Ore., a 51/2-foot bronze statue of Sacagawea, the Indian guide, and her husband, Jean-Baptiste Charbonneau, was stolen from Lewis and Clark National Historical Park in January.

Regarding the last item, the sister church of my church (being a Methodist, my pastor rides a circuit), a big old stone pile about two miles from here, had its 70-plus year old copper gutters stolen a couple of months ago. The thief was caught coming back with his shopping cart for more stuff, but the police said that chances of recovery were slim, since the gutters had probably been reduced to something unrecognizable within hours of the theft.

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No Credit Where Credit Is Due 0

What Duncan calls the “Big Shitpile” continues to spread:

There was more bad news for homebuyers today when one of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders, Cheltenham & Gloucester, pulled its entire home loan range with little notice.

It warned borrowers that its new deals would be more expensive.
C&G said: “From close of business today, Monday May 19, we will be withdrawing and replacing our entire range of mortgage products. Most rates will increase by 0.25% following last week’s rise in the cost of funds.”

Meanwhile, back at home:

They enter through a broken first-floor window each night to sleep on a moldy bed in the abandoned four-family house at 827 Main Street, part of a new generation of squatters emboldened by America’s housing foreclosure crisis.

“For squatters, foreclosed homes like this are like a camp-ground with free camping,” says real-estate broker Marc Charney, a foreclosure specialist, as he enters the home in Brockton, Massachusetts, and shines a flash-light at a mattress where homeless people have been sleeping each night.

Squatting is on the rise across the United States as foreclosures surge, eviction notices mount and homes go unsold for months, complicating the worst U.S. housing slump in a quarter century and forcing real-estate brokers to enlist the help of law enforcement and courts to sell empty houses.

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Bushonomics 0

Food prices at the grocery store rose 1.5 percent in April, thanks to big increases in all major food categories analyzed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported its monthly inflation figures yesterday.

The Philadelphia area was in the same boat, seeing grocery prices rise 1.2 percent from February to April. Unlike the national data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics studies regional inflation figures every two months.

The bad news is being felt in food categories most consumers know and love: bread, milk, butter – even coffee. They are staples people buy every week. The kinds consumers cannot help but notice are costing more.

Agricultural economist Annette Clauson said the uptick in prices in core food categories was feeding shoppers’ anxieties as they also shell out bigger bucks for other routine outlays that, not so long ago, seemed more affordable.

Meanwhile,

Nationwide, 243,353 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in April, up 65 percent from 147,708 in the same month last year and up 4 percent since March, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida were among the hardest hit states, with metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounting for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure, the company said.

Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac monitors default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

One in every 519 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in April. Foreclosure filings increased from a year earlier in all but eight states.

But don’t worry


Gas prices took no break overnight, as the average price for a gallon of no-lead moved up a cent in the region and up 2 cents at the national level, AAA Mid-Atlantic reported today.

The price was averaging $3.78 today in the five-county Philadelphia region and $3.62 in South Jersey.

At the national level, the average was $3.78.

The price of diesel also moved up several cents overnight.

Dick Cheney’s oil buddies are doing just fine.

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Bubble (Updated) 0

This week, This American Life, in conjunction with NPR News, explored the mortgage crises.

It was a fascinating show, including interviews with mortgage brokers, bankers, salespersons, homeowners, and credit counselors, some of whom were rich beyond their dreams before they became broke beyond their means.

From the website:

A special program about the housing crisis. We explain it all to you. What does the housing crisis have to do with the collapse of the investment bank Bear Stearns? Why did banks make half-million dollar loans to people without jobs or income? And why is everyone talking so much about the 1930s? It all comes back to the Giant Pool of Money.

You can go to the website to learn more–listening to this story of greed, of willful blindness, and of the belief that if it is making money it must be right faith in the invisible hand of the market is well worth your time.

(I am sorry, but I could not find an easy way to link to the show itself. There is a “full show” icon on the webpage, but it be that the show won’t be available for streaming until later in the week. But this was one of the best hours of radio I’ve heard in weeks, because it is real people talking about what they really did and how they, as customers, mortgage company employees and brokers, and bundlers, let themselves be sucked into the what Duncan calls the big shitpile.)

Addendum:

The show is now available from the website. Click the download link.

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Bushonomics 2

The failed Republican stewardship of the government is leaving its stamp on the economy.

Unfortunately, it’s a food stamp (emphasis added).

Food prices are up, food-bank supplies are down, and more people in the area are receiving food stamps than at any time in years.

These are, social-service advocates say, dire days for families already beset by climbing gas prices and declining wages.

At the kitchen table, the gas pump and the workplace, people are being squeezed and compelled to live their lives with less and less.

But food is the greatest worry.

“We have a crisis,” said Sydelle Zove, interim food-stamp campaign manager for the Greater Philadelphia Coalition Against Hunger.

“Meals are scarce,” said Susan Smith, a 44-year-old Chester woman with diminishing means. “I’m 5-foot-10 and weigh 130. I should weigh 150.

“I need some food.”

(snip)

All this has occurred as food prices in the Northeastern United States have risen 14 percent since 2002 and median wages in metropolitan Philadelphia (excluding New Jersey) have dropped 4 percent during the same period, said Mark Price, labor economist with the Keystone Research Center, a nonpartisan policy-development institute in Harrisburg.

Regarding the boldfaced portion: So much for the Republican lie of “trickle down economics.”

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Bushonomics 0

Explanation here:

A presidential panel today said America’s math education system is “broken” and called on schools to focus lessons to ensure children from preschool to middle school master key skills.

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Bushonomics 0

Gas and oil prices jumped again to new highs Thursday as the dollar weakened, although crude’s advance was limited by fresh evidence of a U.S. economic slowdown.

At the pump, gas prices surged 2.1 cents overnight to a record national average of $3.267 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices are likely to rise much higher this spring; estimates range from about $3.50 a gallon in the Energy Department’s latest forecast to $3.75 or even $4 a gallon according to some analysts.

Remember that, at the start of the War in Iraq (which the Great Minds in the Current Federal Administration claimed would be paid for by Iraqi oil), oil was running at about $25 a barrel.

Meanwhile, CEOs take their toll:

Shareholders of Toll Brothers Inc. on Wednesday approved a controversial compensation plan designed to award bonuses to the chief executive even when the housing market is slumping.

The Horsham-based builder of luxury homes did not disclose how many votes came out in favor of the plan. But a shareholder activist group said executives disclosed at the shareholders meeting that it was at least 50 percent. Media were barred from attending the event.

CEO Robert Toll didn’t get a bonus for 2007 as the housing market slumped. But under the new CEO bonus plan, the company said, he would have received $6.56 million.

The CEO bonus plan “pays him simply for existing,” said Jennifer O’Dell, deputy director of corporate affairs for the Laborers’ International Union of North America, a union whose pension funds own at least 200,000 shares of Toll Brothers. “You should pay CEOs for performance.”

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Securitization 0

Subprime.

Via Balloon Juice.

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Bushonomics 0

Ensuring the future of our children . . .

(Support the troops, go shopping).

. . . will be crap.

The flow of blood may be ebbing, but the flood of money into the Iraq war is steadily rising, new analyses show.

In 2008, its sixth year, the war will cost approximately $12 billion a month, triple the “burn” rate of its earliest years, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and coauthor Linda J. Bilmes write in a new book.

Beyond 2008, working with “best-case” and “realistic-moderate” scenarios, they project that the Iraq and Afghan wars, including long-term U.S. military occupations of those countries, will cost the U.S. budget between $1.7 trillion and $2.7 trillion – or more – by 2017.

Interest on money borrowed to pay those costs could add $816 billion to that bottom line, they say.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has done its own projections and comes in lower, forecasting a cumulative cost by 2017 of $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion for the two wars, with Iraq generally accounting for three-quarters of the costs.

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Bushonomics 1

Who needs jobs?

When Don Grillet lost his job in the mortgage industry in October, he went through many of the standard stages of unemployment.

There was the “whew, I need a break period.”

There was the “sitting looking at the television period,” in which he was too depressed and too worried to move.

Now Grillet, 30, is in the “omigod, my unemployment insurance runs out in two months phase.”

Today, the closely watched federal monthly jobs numbers will come out to let analysts and economists know what people like Grillet already know – it’s getting harder to find work, especially for people in financial services, a sector that has been shedding jobs for months as the extent of the subprime-mortgage crisis widens.

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Bailing Out the Banks 0

In pursuit of commisions, they chose to make bad loans. Now let someone else pay for them:

While many people in this country are pushing for more money to get health insurance for kids in low-income families, or to pay for their childcare, the politicians have a different idea. The politicians’ plan to help low- and moderate-income families is to have them pay a special 18% income tax to live in a home in which they have no equity.

Here’s how it works. As we know, millions of families are facing foreclosure on their homes because they have mortgages that they can’t afford and live in homes that are worth less than the amount on their mortgages. This is a situation where the banks would ordinarily take a huge hit since they have no hope of recouping anywhere near the amount owed on the mortgages when the homes go through the foreclosure process.

But politicians can’t resist a bank in distress. They want the government to step in and either guarantee or directly issue new mortgages to these homeowners. When these new mortgages are issued to pay off most or all of the prior mortgages, they will be giving the banks far more money than they can reasonably hope to get if the houses had gone through the foreclosure process.

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Bushonomics 1

I paid the fuel oil bill for the church yesterday.

Fortunately, I have gas heat. So, instead of getting rabbit-punched three or four times over the course of the winter, I just slowly bleed to death on a monthly basis.

$3.29 9/10 a gallon. That’s $.24 more than I paid per gallon the last time I filled up my little yellow truck with gasoline and about $.15 to $.20 more than the current price for regular gasoline in these parts as of yesterday.

Oh, yeah, wasn’t oil supposed to pay for the war in Iraq?

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Bushonomics 2

Mushrooming problems:

Chester County’s powerful mushroom industry, long immune to the ravages of Mother Nature, is succumbing instead to another potent force these days: the high cost of energy.

The cost of compost, heating oil and other essentials needed to grow mushrooms has risen so quickly since Hurricane Katrina caused a spike in crude-oil prices two years ago that some growers in the area – where more than half the nation’s mushrooms are produced – say they are operating in the red.

So, many Chester County mushroom growers this winter have begun to impose steep price increases, a move they say is essential but makes them more vulnerable to competition that now includes cheap mushrooms grown in China.

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