Political Economy category archive

Back over 400K.

Applications for jobless benefits increased by 25,000 to 410,000 in the week ended Feb. 12, exceeding the 400,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance was little changed, while those collecting extended payments decreased.

A reduction in firings by U.S. firms is needed to keep unemployment going down. Bigger job gains are needed to boost consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the world’s largest economy.

Two thoughts:

• There will be no increase in consumer spending until the number of consumers who have something to spend increases significantly. The DOW doesn’t spend.
• The unnamed experts forecasting the figures should maybe read the racing form before placing their bets.

Making homes more affordable while reducing wasteful spending on unnecessary frills such as schools, police forces, and fire departments:

FROM WEST GHENT to Bayview, the housing slump took a huge toll on the city in 2010, with banks foreclosing on nearly 1,000 homes. In some neighborhoods, foreclosures outnumbered traditional house sales.

(snip)

Bunn said what Norfolk experienced with its home values is not unlike its neighbors. Virginia Beach’s real estate tax assessments will drop by about 3 percent, Chesapeake by 3.3 percent and Suffolk from 5 to 7 percent, she said. She did not get an answer from Portsmouth leaders about their assessments, she said. Other South Hampton Roads cities are expected to release details soon about their 2010 assessments.

Noticeably under 400k for the first time in a long time:

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 36,000, more than forecast, to 383,000 in the week ended Feb. 4, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast claims would fall to 410,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell, while those collecting extended payments increased.

Afterthought:

Next time you complain because the predicted day’s high temperature was off by a couple of degrees or because the forecasted rain started an hour early, stop and consider how ticked off you would be if these unnamed “economists” cited above were predicting the weather.

Addendum:

Elmer Smith at Philly dot com cautions that

It’s all in how the numbers get calculated.

Follow the link for his explanation of the variables.

Hadley Freeman, in the Guardian, dissects the meanness and misogyny lurking in the right wind’s anti-abortion, anti-birth control tactics (emphasis added):

An exciting update on last week’s discussion about how certain US politicians believe that, while some women are unfortunate enough to be raped, not all of them have been raped enough.

Consequently, some right wingers wanted to finish the job politically.

The “forcible rape” tactic succumbed to the derision it deserved, so now the Republicans are looking to a tax increase strategy.

Which leads to a wonder that I’ve wondered before: Why are Republicans so interested in other persons’ private parts?

Still not good:

Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 42,000 to 415,000 in the week ended Jan. 29, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast claims would fall to 420,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance and those collecting extended payments decreased.

In related news,

The productivity of U.S. workers unexpectedly increased in the fourth quarter at a faster rate as companies sought to contain costs.

The measure of employee output per hour rose at a 2.6 percent annual rate, compared with a revised 2.4 percent gain in the previous three months, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 2 percent advance, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Labor expenses fell for fifth time in six quarters.

In a Jeremiad against Britain’s proposed cuts in public services, Philip Pullman rips into those who think that everything must be for sale:

Like all fundamentalists who get their clammy hands on the levers of power, the market fanatics are going to kill off every humane, life-enhancing, generous, imaginative and decent corner of our public life.

(snip)

Market fundamentalism, this madness that’s infected the human race, is like a greedy ghost that haunts the boardrooms and council chambers and committee rooms from which the world is run these days. The greedy ghost understands profit all right. But that’s all. What he doesn’t understand is enterprises that don’t make a profit, because they’re set up to do something different. He doesn’t understand libraries at all, for instance. That branch – how much money did it make last year? Why aren’t you charging higher fines? Why don’t you charge for everything?

Read it.

Christmas help hits the streets. Not good.

Applications for jobless benefits increased by 51,000 to 454,000 in the week ended Jan. 22, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 405,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those collecting extended payments fell.

A Labor Department official said snow in four southern states in previous weeks created a backlog of claims that were processed last week. While the economy has improved, it hasn’t been enough to reduce an unemployment rate that Federal Reserve policy makers said yesterday is too high and requires pressing ahead with a $600 billion stimulus plan.

Having Republicans and Democrats sit side-by-side to hear the state of the union address is one of the sillier sideshows in this very new Congress.

Joanna Weiss envisions non-Congressional side-by-sides at the Boston Globe (registration nag screen may appear). A nugget:

Oprah Winfrey and Sarah Palin Can the two queens of television push their thrones together? Sure, Oprah has her own network and enough money to buy Scandinavia, but Palin can get an entire nation talking just by tweeting a misspelled word. Their shared commentary would be ratings gold.

Prediction: Oprah breathes deeply, sobs openly, and proclaims that the speech has given her a deeper understanding of her essential self. Palin posts an anti-Obama diatribe on her Facebook page and tweets: “Collabination is for wimps.’’

Better than last week:

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell more than forecast last week, adding to evidence the labor market is healing.

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 37,000 in the week ended Jan. 15, the biggest decline since February 2010, to 404,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls fell, while those getting extended payments rose.

(snip)

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 49 economists ranged from 400,000 to 462,000, after an initially reported 445,000 the previous week.

As I’ve grumbled before, it seems crucial to someone whether the actual figures are above or below expectations (note that they never seem to be at expectations), which leads me to wonder about the expectators. These expectations seem like the spread in the betting line for a football game.

I really think that these “forecasters” and “analysts” whose predictions get quoted in such stories should be identified in a little more detail.

• Are they academicians, consultants, banksters, or what?
• Is their expertise pro bono or for hire?
• Are any of the well-known persons who predicted the housing crash–and got resoundingly ignored by most media and the business and Bushonomic establishment–included or are they the folks with a history of demonstrated failure in three-piece suits?
• Does each news outlet use the same panel week after week, or do they trade for new ones in the “Fantasy Economists League” before each week’s Tuesday trading deadline?

For all I know, they operate out of little pink houses with yard signs saying “Sister Paula’s Economic Readings–No Appt. Necessary.”

Referring to them simply as “economists” or “experts” or “panel” imputes to them a level of profundity that, frankly, is not supported by their performance.

Richard Wolff discusses American Exceptionalism in the Guardian.

First, a definition:

One aspect of “American exceptionalism” was always economic. US workers, so the story went, enjoyed a rising level of real wages that afforded their families a rising standard of living. Ever harder work paid off in rising consumption. The rich got richer faster than the middle and poor, but almost no one got poorer. Nearly all citizens felt “middle class”.

Follow the link to find out what happened next.

(Hint: The “almost no one got poorer” part–not so much no more.)

To get relevant answers, one must ask the correct questions.

Kevin Cullen of the Boston Globe talks with a retiring firefighter. The discussion turns to public employee unions and to asking correct questions (emphasis added):

“The anti-public union sentiment used to be in pockets. But now it’s national. If I had to put a time frame on it, I’d say there was a real change when the economy went downhill in 2008,’’ McCarthy said.

“People’s retirement plans took a big hit on the stock market. Then everybody looked at the public unions and said, ‘Hey, why I should be paying for their pensions and benefits when mine are being cut?’

“I think that’s the wrong question. The right question is, why are companies in the private sector so bent on profits that they don’t want to take care of their workers?

The relevant answer is “Bonuses, Stock Options, and Country Club Memberships.”

Light the torches! Get the pitchforks!

It is time to storm the Wikileaks castle Domain Name Servers once more:

A former Swiss banker has passed on data containing account details of 2,000 prominent people to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The data – which is not yet available on the Wikileaks website – was held on two discs handed over by Rudolf Elmer at a press conference in London.

(snip)

Although it was not confirmed what activities might be covered by the data, the Wikileaks head noted that previous data from Julius Baer provided by Mr Elmer had shed light on tax evasion, the hiding of proceeds of criminal acts and “the protection of assets of those about to fall out of political favour”.

The data covers multinationals, financial firms and wealthy individuals from many countries, including the UK, US and Germany, and covers the period 1990-2009, according to a report in Swiss newspaper Der Sonntag.

Atrios predicts the reaction:

I’m sure the Very Serious People response to anti-rich people leaks to wikileaks will be the same as their response to leaks embarrassing powerful people in governments. It’s just wrong to hold powerful people accountable for anything.

Frankly, I suspect that those particular disks will never be seen again unless they are backed up in multiple secure locations.

“All these high CEOs and Wall Streeters getting bonuses on our tax dollars and . . . the government coming after public employees saying they’re the . . . cause of this . .”

Screenshot:

At the Guardian, Paul Harris comments on the anti-worker frenzy, pointing out the dipsy-doodle to distract persons from the real culprits:

What is perverse about this trend is just how vastly it misunderstands what went wrong with the American economy. No one is denying that this is a time for belt-tightening. Or that some unions have problems. Or that some union contracts look over-generous in austerity America. But the fundamental truth remains: powerful and reckless unions did not cause the Great Recession by rampant speculation. Nor did an out-of-control labour movement cause or burst the housing bubble. It was not union bosses who packaged up complex derivatives to sell in their millions and thus wrecked the economy and put millions out of work. Nor was it union bosses who awarded (and continue to award) themselves salaries worth hundreds of millions of dollars for doing nothing of social value. Neither was it the union movement that was bailed out by the taxpayer and then refused to change its habits.

All that was the work of the finance industry.

Back over 400k, but still a slightly positive trend:

The average number of applications for jobless benefits over the past four weeks dropped to 410,750, the lowest level since July 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Claims for the week ended Jan. 1 rose by 18,000 to 409,000, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Firings have been waning in recent weeks, a necessary step toward gains in hiring that will help boost consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. A report tomorrow is projected to show employers added to payrolls in December for a third month as the U.S. expansion gained speed.

Looking more like a trend, though adjustments will likely have to be made because of the Christmas holiday, which makes for an atypical week.

Even so, under 400k for the first time in a long time:

First-time filings for unemployment insurance decreased by 34,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Dec. 25, compared with the median forecast of 415,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. There were no special factors behind the drop, an official at the agency said as the data were released.

New unemployment claims still holding under 450,000. Bloomberg:

First-time filings for jobless insurance declined by 3,000 to 420,000 in the week ended Dec. 18, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Those already collecting benefits fell in the previous week to 4.06 million.

(snip)

Estimates of initial claims in the Bloomberg survey of 45 economists ranged from 400,000 to 430,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure up to 423,000.

Reuters discusses continuing claims, more important than weekly figures:

Continuing claims, which exclude the millions of Americans relying on extended benefits, dipped to 4.06 million in the week ending December 11, down from 4.17 million a week earlier. The four-week average, which smoothes out week-to-week volatility, fell to 4.16 million from 4.19 million.

Via BartBlog.

The Republican policies that make the rich, richer and the poor, poorer.

Santas can’t get work.

“People are telling us they just can’t afford a photo with Santa,” Trolli said.

Even in-demand Santas with real beards have had to slash rates, Trolli said. They once commanded $200 an hour, but now they’re charging half that.

Trolli said that anecdotally, his members’ bookings are off about 25 percent. Other Santas around the nation said that in good years, they booked 40 events a season and are down to fewer than 10. Others who once booked 10 events a year are down to none.

Addendum:

Talk about serendipity, this was in my RSS feed this morning:

Ratify START.

Transcript here.