From Pine View Farm

The Household Financial Fallacy 0

Fundamental to this whole mess is thinking of one’s primary residence, not as a place to live, but as an investment. That’s gambling with the grocery money.

Home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell more than forecast in March as foreclosures surged, threatening to extend the housing slump.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index decreased 18.7 percent from March 2008, matching the drop in the year ended in February. The measure declined 19 percent in January, the most since data began in 2001.

Record foreclosures are depressing the value of other properties, contributing to a slump in household wealth that is hurting consumer spending and the economy. Still, falling prices and mortgage rates have made homes more affordable, helping to stem the slide in sales, which will eventually help prices stabilize.

Douglas A. McIntyre, writing at 24/7, considers the claim that the S&P data is so old (two months) as to be meaningless:

But, the numbers from March are like canned vegetables. It takes them a long time to spoil. That point was driven home by a study Fitch, the credit ratings agency, is preparing that shows “that between 65% and 75% of modified subprime loans will fall 60-days or more delinquent within 12 months of the loan change.” In other words, even if homeowners are given a second chance to keep their homes and enjoy lower monthly payments, they are prepared to walk away.

The market is looking for ways to claim that housing is finding a bottom and that it is possible that a recovery in home prices in in the wings. While there may be some pick-up in sales in the most depressed markets including Nevada and Florida, there is no sign that prices are rising. Clever buyers are moving in to buy homes in foreclosure, but the prices of these houses are so low that their sales may actually bring down the average price of the homes being sold in those markets.

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