Nothing To Do, Nowhere To Go 0
Better than last week:
Applications for jobless benefits decreased 37,000 in the week ended Jan. 15, the biggest decline since February 2010, to 404,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls fell, while those getting extended payments rose.
(snip)
Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 49 economists ranged from 400,000 to 462,000, after an initially reported 445,000 the previous week.
As I’ve grumbled before, it seems crucial to someone whether the actual figures are above or below expectations (note that they never seem to be at expectations), which leads me to wonder about the expectators. These expectations seem like the spread in the betting line for a football game.
I really think that these “forecasters” and “analysts” whose predictions get quoted in such stories should be identified in a little more detail.
- Are they academicians, consultants, banksters, or what?
- Is their expertise pro bono or for hire?
- Are any of the well-known persons who predicted the housing crash–and got resoundingly ignored by most media and the business and Bushonomic establishment–included or are they the folks with a history of demonstrated failure in three-piece suits?
- Does each news outlet use the same panel week after week, or do they trade for new ones in the “Fantasy Economists League” before each week’s Tuesday trading deadline?
For all I know, they operate out of little pink houses with yard signs saying “Sister Paula’s Economic Readings–No Appt. Necessary.”
Referring to them simply as “economists” or “experts” or “panel” imputes to them a level of profundity that, frankly, is not supported by their performance.
